By Kwabena Adu Koranteng
As the political temperature gradually rises toward the 2028 general elections, a combination of economic decisions, internal political tensions, youth frustrations, and voter sentiment could create what may become the biggest political opening for former Vice President and 2024 presidential candidate, Mahamudu Bawumia, to emerge as Ghana’s next President.
Political analysts believe governments often lose power not merely because the opposition becomes stronger, but because ruling parties create the conditions for their own defeat. The governing National Democratic Congress (NDC), under the leadership of John Dramani Mahama, may be heading into precisely such a dangerous political terrain.
Cocoa Pricing Controversy and Electoral Consequences
One of the most politically sensitive issues confronting the government is the cocoa sector, which remains the backbone of many rural economies. Any reduction in cocoa producer prices, particularly if perceived as harmful to farmers’ livelihoods, risks generating significant political dissatisfaction among cocoa-growing communities.
With hundreds of thousands of cocoa farmers spread across major regions of the country and millions of dependants connected to the cocoa value chain, political dissatisfaction in this sector could carry serious electoral consequences. Rural voting patterns have historically played a decisive role in determining presidential outcomes.
Should cocoa farmers increasingly feel abandoned or economically pressured, the opposition, especially Dr. Bawumia and the New Patriotic Party (NPP), may find an opportunity to reconnect with a critical voter bloc.
Youth Unemployment and the 24-Hour Economy Debate
Another major political risk for the government lies in youth unemployment. The NDC’s flagship promise of a “24-hour economy” generated considerable expectations among unemployed young people seeking jobs and economic inclusion.
However, if the programme fails to deliver visible employment opportunities or tangible economic benefits before the 2028 elections, frustrations among young voters may intensify. In Ghanaian politics, unemployed youth constitute one of the most powerful and unpredictable voting blocs.
A disappointed youth population could either swing toward the opposition or withdraw from the electoral process entirely.
Internal NDC Rivalries Could Trigger Voter Apathy
History has shown that internal divisions within ruling parties often weaken electoral fortunes. As the NDC moves closer to its anticipated 2027 internal contests and succession struggles, political tensions among leading figures may intensify.
Factionalism, internal mistrust, and power struggles could potentially divide party supporters and suppress enthusiasm at the grassroots level. Political fatigue and disappointment among supporters often lead to voter apathy one of the deadliest threats to any governing party seeking re-election.
If sections of the NDC base become disillusioned or disengaged, the opposition could benefit significantly.
Debt, IMF Exit and Economic Risks
Another key issue likely to shape public opinion is Ghana’s economic management after the country’s anticipated exit from the IMF programme. Questions remain about whether the government would pursue aggressive borrowing to fund infrastructure and development ambitions.
Critics argue that excessive post-IMF borrowing, if not carefully managed, could heighten debt vulnerabilities, increase fiscal pressures and weaken macroeconomic stability. Economic hardship has historically punished incumbent governments at the ballot box.
If inflation, unemployment or debt concerns worsen, voters may increasingly seek an alternative economic direction.
Governance, Corruption Perception and Public Trust
Public perception matters in politics sometimes more than reality itself. Allegations of corruption, sole sourcing controversies, contract awards, and concerns over governance standards could become major campaign issues heading into 2028.
In many elections, perceptions of arrogance, weak accountability, or political favoritism have contributed significantly to voter backlash.
Why Bawumia Could Benefit
For Dr. Bawumia, the political pathway may ultimately depend less on opposition strength and more on whether the NDC creates dissatisfaction among key voting blocs.
If cocoa farmers become disillusioned, youth unemployment remains unresolved, economic pressures intensify, and internal NDC divisions deepen, the former Vice President could position himself as a reform-driven alternative capable of rebuilding confidence and accelerating national transformation.
The road to 2028 remains uncertain. Ghanaian elections are often shaped by economic realities, public trust, and campaign momentum. Yet one political truth remains constant: governments are frequently defeated by the weight of unmet expectations.
If current frustrations deepen, the NDC may inadvertently be creating the strongest political opportunity for Dr. Bawumia to return—not merely as candidate, but potentially as Ghana’s next President.
