THE REPUBLIC VS. GREED AND IMPATIENCE
Opening Remarks:
In the wake of the NPP flagbearer race for 2028, self-serving narratives seek to overturn a time-tested precedent by attacking Bawumia’s impending repetition as flagbearer. But the record is unambiguous: repetition of failed flagbearers has hardened into political stare decisis in Ghana’s Fourth Republic succession.
This jurisprudence was shaped early by the NPP’s own miscalculation with Prof. Albert Adu Boahen. Instead of situating his 1992 loss within the political gravity of Rawlings’ dominance, party actors panicked. They misdiagnosed the defeat, embraced convenient scapegoats, and hastily replaced Adu Boahen with J.A. Kuffuor. The result was another defeat in 1996. Only after Kuffuor’s persistence, with the party’s backing his repetition for a second flagbearer bid in a new normal, returned an electoral victory in 2000. This was a direct dividend from wisdom replacing haste. From then, repeating flagbearers for a second or third bid became the corrective doctrine of political succession.
The margin of loss (percentage points or raw numbers) has never altered this precedent. What matters are tthree constants: Charisma, marketability and ground machinery. History has never erased them.
It is, therefore, my civic duty to issue judicial pronouncement on this matter and silence the divisive noise once and for all.
Judgment: The Case for Bawumia
Upon review of Ghana’s Fourth Republic succession, this Court finds a consistent precedent: presidential victory is rarely instant but achieved through persistence, resilience, and repeated contests. The doctrine of “third-time-lucky” has crystallised into political stare decisis, binding upon both NDC and NPP.
Findings of Fact
- NDC Precedent: Jerry John Rawlings served two full terms as the Republic’s first civilian president. His Vice, John Evans Atta Mills, failed in 2000, failed again in 2004, but prevailed in 2008 after gruelling runoffs and near-constitutional crisis. Mills’ untimely death passed leadership to John Mahama. John Mahama leveraged incumbency, sympathy, and unprecedented glamorous campaign spending to leapfrog his bid.The strategic effect of these combo, secured John Mahama a straight one touch mandate at his first attempt in 2012.
- NPP Precedent: Professor Adu Boahen failed in 1992 but was prematurely discarded in 1996; an error that cost the party dearly. J.A. Kuffuor himself lost once, recalibrated, and returned in 2000 to secure two terms. Nana Akufo-Addo likewise lost twice before prevailing on his third attempt in 2016.
Ratio Decidendi (Reasoning)
The consistent pattern across both dominant parties establishes a binding precedent: first defeats are not fatal but formative. They incubate strategy, harden resilience, and prepare flagbearers for ultimate victory.
Obiter Dictum (Commentary)
The uproar from Kennedy and his camp over Vice President Mahamudu Bawumia’s first electoral defeat is misplaced. He contested under one of Ghana’s harshest economic climates in an extraordinary circumstance. History dictates that endurance, not instant success, determines political destiny. The irony is that those asking delegates not to repeat Bawumia for a second bid were the same people who sabotaged his first bid into a defeat.
Order of the Court
Flagbearers are not to be discarded after a first loss. The electorate rewards those who endure, recalibrate, and return stronger. Ghana’s succession arc proves leadership is a marathon, not a sprint.
Verdict:
Bawumia remains in the race. History smiles upon him. And in the court of the Fourth Republic, a binding precedent has already been established: that a second or third-time crowns the patient.
To depart from this precedent and discard Bawumia would be to repeat Adu Boahen error of 1996 – an act of political suicide the NPP cannot afford.
Justice Sarbah | PP Strategist.CL | Civic Advocate
